From Reaction to Readiness: Scenario Planning for Urban Resilience

Cities and the Crisis of Reaction

Cities today are navigating a turbulent terrain, one marked by climate disruption, public health crises, economic volatility, and social unrest. The shocks are more frequent, more complex, and often, deeply interconnected. Yet, in many places, urban responses remain reactive, addressing symptoms rather than systems.

A flood? Build a bigger drain.

Congestion? Widen the road.

A fatal crash? Install a speed bump.

Sprawling development? Redraw zoning maps.

These interventions, while often necessary, tend to address symptoms rather than systems. They emerge after the fact, when the damage has already been felt, when resilience gives way to recovery. In this context, the question for cities is not how fast they can react, but rather how well they can prepare.

That’s where Scenario Planning comes in, a powerful, yet underutilized, approach that helps cities move from short-term fixes to long-term resilience. A strategic tool to help cities move from reaction to readiness.

Why Scenario Planning Matters

Scenario planning is not about predicting the future. It’s about preparing for multiple plausible ones. It recognizes that uncertainty is not a problem to solve — but a condition to work with.

In contrast to traditional forecasting, scenario planning allows cities to think in alternatives, explore emerging risks and opportunities, and stress-test their current strategies.

It involves asking:

• What if we’re wrong about how our city is growing?

• What if the population ages faster than expected?

• What if climate shocks become the new normal?

• What if digital disruption reshapes the nature of jobs, education, and mobility?

Each scenario becomes a narrative lens — one through which we view the future and adapt our plans accordingly. This approach is echoed in Peter Schwartz’s foundational work on scenario planning: “The end result is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions today.” (Schwartz, 1991).

Global South Leadership: Santiago’s Example

One standout example is Santiago, Chile. Faced with mounting climate risks, social inequalities, and the aftermath of civil unrest in 2019, Santiago began developing Santiago 2050 — a long-term vision grounded in strategic foresight and participatory planning.

Through collaboration with UNDP, GIZ, and local institutions like Fundación Ciudad Emergente, the city adopted scenario planning to map out urban futures under different socio-political and environmental trajectories. The process included:

• Multi-stakeholder workshops with communities, planners, and civil society

• Identification of critical uncertainties (e.g., governance stability, climate action capacity)

• Scenario building with distinct pathways: from inclusive green growth to fragmented privatized expansion

• Reflection on which current policies would thrive, survive, or fail in each pathway

According to UNDP Chile’s foresight team, “Strategic foresight allows us to rethink the future as something we can shape, rather than something we must endure” (UNDP, 2022).

Why It’s Not Happening More Often

Despite the evidence, few cities regularly practice scenario planning. Why?

1. Governance inertia – Institutions built for certainty and linearity struggle to accommodate complexity.

2. Short political cycles – Leadership changes every 3–5 years, but scenario planning works best over 10–30.

3. Skills gap – Scenario development requires systems thinking, facilitation, and futures literacy — capabilities still rare in many local governments.

4. Lack of ownership – Scenarios are often developed by consultants and never internalized by city leadership or communities.

The OECD’s Strategic Foresight for Better Policies report (2020) notes that while scenario tools are increasingly accessible, they remain underutilized in city-level governance — particularly in the Global South, where they are most needed.

From Vision to Practice: How Cities Can Start

Scenario planning doesn’t need to be grand or expensive. Cities can begin with:

• Hosting community-based futures workshops with diverse voices

• Identifying 2–4 critical uncertainties affecting the city’s future (e.g., heatwaves, informal settlement growth, AI disruption)

• Developing contrasting scenario narratives

• Using those to test current plans and priorities

• Creating adaptive pathways with built-in “trigger points” that signal when to adjust course

In Finland, the Sitra Innovation Fund (2018) developed foresight methods that empower cities to co-create sustainable futures by working with local communities, experts, and policymakers. Their report, Foresight Towards Smart and Sustainable Cities, provides practical tools for embedding long-term thinking into urban strategy — including visioning, scenario-building, and backcasting techniques. These approaches demonstrate that even cities in highly structured planning contexts can plan adaptively, creatively, and inclusively.

In Singapore, the government established the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) to embed foresight thinking across public agencies. CSF supports scenario planning, horizon scanning, and risk sensing at the highest levels of decision-making — not just to anticipate disruptions, but to shape future-proof strategies. Its work exemplifies how cities and states can institutionalize futures thinking to prepare for complexity, uncertainty, and change (Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures, n.d.).

The Executive MSc in Cities at LSE encourages city leaders to think this way — promoting a transition from technical solutions to adaptive governance, from long-range plans to long-term readiness (LSE Cities, 2023).

From Fear to Foresight

As Ricky Burdett of LSE Cities says, “Cities are where the future happens first.” But to lead, cities must do more than respond — they must rehearse for uncertainty, design with imagination, and govern with curiosity.

Scenario planning is not a luxury. It is a necessity — especially in a world where the ground beneath our urban futures is constantly shifting.

Because resilience is not built in hindsight. It’s built by thinking ahead.

Planning Shot

Strategic transformation begins with strategic imagination. If your city’s plan only works in one future, it’s already outdated. Build for the world we don’t yet know — and you’ll be ready for the one that comes.

References

• Jacobs, Jane. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities.

• LSE Cities. (2016). New Urban Governance: Research Summary. https://lsecities.net/

• LSE Executive MSc in Cities. (2023). Strategic Foresight Module, Course Materials.

• Schwartz, Peter. (1991). The Art of the Long View. Doubleday.

• OECD. (2020). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies. https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/

• UNDP Chile. (2022). Strategic Foresight in Santiago: Lessons from Participatory Scenario Planning.

• Fundación Ciudad Emergente. (2022). Santiago 2050 Visioning Report.

• Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist.

• Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures. https://www.csf.gov.sg/

• UNDP. (2021). Futures Thinking in Practice: A Toolkit for Foresight and Adaptive Planning.

• Foresight Finland. (2018). Foresight Towards Smart and Sustainable Cities. Sitra Innovation Fund. https://www.sitra.fi/en/articles/foresight-smart-sustainable-cities/